Will Pacquiao vs Cotto Put Doubts to Rest?

Yesterday here at The Rumble, Largarito posted a piece about how Nacho Beristain is predicting Miguel Cotto will be knocked out by Manny Pacquiao in five or six rounds. His opinion is built on an idea that has become commonplace in the boxing world, that Cotto is not the same man he was before the Margarito defeat. Beristain referenced the same thing everyone else has in voicing this notion – Cotto’s fight against Joshua Clottey this past June. In it, Cotto was forced to scratch and claw his way to a disputed decision victory over an opponent most expected him to handle easily given his superior status.

But as with a lot of other things in boxing at the moment, the relative value of that assessment is a hard thing to gauge. Is Cotto really a “spent force,” as one No Masian put it in the comments section of Shoefly’s recap of the fight back at the Mas? It's become frequent speculation that he may be, and no less of a boxing expert than the great Nacho Beristain saw it as evident against Clottey. But I ask you: What about the cut? Cotto suffered a bad one against Clottey, and showed real courage in fighting through it. How do we know that is not the real reason he struggled so much against Clottey (not to mention the fact that Clottey is much better than people often give him credit for being)?

This is a current theme in the ever-muddled world of boxing. Nothing is clear. Just as people doubt Cotto today, they generally sprinkle a grain of salt on Pacquiao’s triumph over Oscar De la Hoya, arguing that the Golden Boy was old and weight-drained. But how much of Oscar’s poor performance really had to do with the brilliance of the man across from him? Certainly Oscar was not at his best that night and that contributed to his striking defeat, but it's just as likely that the blinding speed of Pacquiao made him look more shot than he truly was.

All of these questions make it difficult to measure Pac’s chances against Cotto. One doesn't know how great Miguel is at this point and one is equally unsure of how to properly calibrate Manny’s ability to compete against a true welterweight. Which means we won’t have a solid idea about how he’d fare against Mayweather until we see how he does against Cotto. Depending on the outcome, even that might not provide any strong evidence. If he loses, well, it’s a moot point. But even if he wins, we won’t know if he’s truly Superman because he proved he could beat a great, natural 147-pounder in the prime of his career, or if he just took advantage of another cat who’s not as threatening as he used to be. Either way, the doubts that now hover over each man likely will be cited to downplay the victory of one or the other.

It makes for a confusing picture, and yet it's just the nature of the hurt game, period. As Shoefly once wrote, “boxing is about context.” Indeed, more than any other sport it seems to be about circumstance – it’s harder in boxing to take things at face value than it is in any other game. Where that leaves us with Pac/Cotto is with a very difficult fight to forecast on our hands, one in which all the looming questions about both men will be asked over and over ad nauseum, and won't truly be answered until that first bell finally rings.

Source: http://www.sportingnews.com/blog/The_Rumble/entry/view/37951/will_pacquiao_vs._cotto_put_doubts_to_rest?