Less than three weeks from now, the world will know if Roach’s uncanny ability to predict which round Manny Pacquiao will win will again be tested.
Sure Cotto isn’t indestructible. He lost badly and by technical knockout to Antonio Margarito and barely survived Joshua Clottey in his last fight.
He knees also buckled when he fought Carlos Quintana.
But those guys are natural welterweights and Cotto is at home at this division.
But then again, those were the same arguments pundits made when Manny Pacquiao fought Ricky Hatton and Oscar de la Hoya – that the Filipino boxing sensation is stretching his luck too far out by fighting men bigger than his size.
That’s what separate Manny from today’s class of fighters when weight division have already been watered down from what were only eight weight classes in the olden days. When it is not uncommon for boxers to fight opponents as much as 10 pounds heavier, except in the open-ended heavyweight division. Back then, professional boxing was at its purest.
Will Manny knockout Cotto in the early rounds, let alone the first?
I say it depends on the game plan of Cotto, or his game plans.
While Roach may have already devised a strategy for Manny to put away Cotto, the Puerto Rican may not oblige.
The only way Cotto will hit the canvass for good is when he gets careless and underestimates Manny’s knockout punches.
Or when he gets rattled and forgets to adapt a Plan B or Plan C against a boxer whose speed is undeniably unparalleled in today’s batch of professional boxers, if not of all times.
Fighting Manny is an on-the-job-training. You will never get to know him until you get inside the ring with him. Ask Erik Morales, Marco Antonio Barrera and Juan Manuel Marquez, all of whom fought Manny at least twice.
Morales got the better of Pacquiao in their first encounter but there is an asterisk and a lot of ifs in that fight. Like if Manny didn’t get cut by a headbutt and if only his former promoter Murad Mohammad didn’t fleece him of his deserved purse and cut of the pay per view. But his second and third engagements with Morales were works of art.
Barrera was never the same man after he succumbed to Manny in eleven rounds at the Alamodome in 2003.
Marquez gave Pacquiao fits but he never solved Manny despite his claims of wining both fights with the Filipino southpaw.
De la Hoya and Hatton committed the same mistake – underestimating Manny’s strength and newfound boxing prowess.
Cotto, without doubt is preparing and priming himself up for a boxing match with Pacquiao. He will not expect Manny to come rushing towards him carelessly. He will time Manny’s attacks and hopes to counter them effectively.
Trouble is, Manny is at his dangerous best when his opponent sits and waits from him.
Look at what Manny did to David Diaz. He turned Diaz’ face into a grotesque mask before mercifully ending the bleeding in the ninth round. Marvel at how he reduced De la Hoya into a sitting duck and ‘stationary speedball’ – peppering him with precision punching almost at will. Look at how he attempted to brutally murder Hatton in two rounds.
Cotto will fare better than all of them only because he is heavier and stronger.
But there is no escaping Manny.
Cotto can run but he cannot hide.
He can rush but he cannot hit.
Only when Manny commits the mistake of opening his rib cage and offering his chin can Cotto hope to win.
I will disagree with Roach, Manny won’t knockout Cotto in the first but a knockout there will be.
Source: http://asiancorrespondent.com/edwin-espejo/pacquiao-watch:-will-a-first-round-.htm
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