I have huge respect for trainer Freddie Roach, but I can’t agree with his prediction that Manny Pacquiao will knock out Miguel Cotto in the first round next Saturday night.
I don’t dispute Pacquiao has incredible speed, and I accept that he carries fantastic power, but even so, one look at Pacquiao’s record will tell you that he seldom wins fights in the first round. The last time he achieved that was more than seven years ago, when he was still a junior-featherweight. That is 17 fights and 130 rounds ago!
That’s when he stopped Fahprakorb Rakkiatgym of Thailand two minutes 46 seconds into the first round. His previous first-round stoppage came in June 2000 against South Korea’s Seung-Kon Chae, then an unbeaten fighter.
In his days before becoming a world champion, Pacquiao scored four first-round KOs for a career tally of six. But his best round for finishing an opponent is the second, which he’s achieved seven times.
Pacquiao has executed five stoppage wins in round three and five in round four, which means that 23 of his 37 career stoppage wins have come in the first four rounds.
It’s awesome stuff, but remember this: Miguel Cotto is tough. Sure, Zab Judah rocked him in round one, but he recovered quickly. Secondly, he has been stopped only once in his career and that was in the 11th round against a hard fighter who might have been packing plaster-of-paris in his gloves!
And don’t forget, for all the similarities and weaknesses that Roach claims to have spotted between Cotto and Hatton, Pacquiao didn’t stop Hatton in round one.
Furthermore, if you look back on superfights throughout history, how many of them ended in the first round? Almost none!
Pacquiao and Cotto fans seem to think their fighter will have an easy night on November 14. The last time both these men went the distance they had to settle for split decisions – Cotto against Joshua Clottey in June and Pacquiao against Juan Manuel Marquez in March last year.
I have a feeling that this fight will go to the final bell, although I think Pacquiao will emerge victorious. If there is a stoppage, it will be in the later rounds.
I’m not entirely sure how this will end, but that’s what makes this an intriguing fight – nobody knows what will happen!
Source: http://blogs.timeslive.co.za/longdrop/2009/11/02/why-manny-pacquiao-wont-ko-miguel-cotto-in-round-1/
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